Du, Zahnweh; Lin Wang; Simon Cauchemez; Xianoke Xu; Xianwen Wang; Benjamin J. Cowling and Lauren Ancel Meyers
On January 23, 2020, China quarantined Wuhan to contain 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We estimated the probability of transportation of COVID-19 from Wuhan to 369 other cities in China before the quarantine. Expected COVID-19 risk is >50% in 130 (95% CI 89–190) cities and >99% in the 4 largest metropolitan areas.