Wang, Xutong; Zhanwei Du; Kaitlyn E. Johnson; Spencer J Fox; Michael Lachmann; Jason S. McLellan and Lauren Ancel Meyers

As COVID-19 vaccination begins worldwide, policymakers face critical trade-offs. Using a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission, we find that timing of the rollout is expected to have a substantially greater impact on mortality than risk-based prioritization and adherence and that prioritizing first doses over second doses may be life saving.