The emergence of new viruses is often unpredictable, jumping as they might from infecting one species to another. HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, was thought to have emerged in the early 20th century, by moving from chimpanzee to human, while SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 infection, is thought to have jumped from bat to human. Both viruses would lead to worldwide pandemics, causing millions of deaths to date.
On November 12–13, SFI External Professor Santiago Elena (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas) will convene a working group, called “Predicting Virus Evolution and Emergence,” with the goal of identifying which factors are important to the emergence of new viral pathogens.
“Predicting when and how infectious diseases will emerge has become a major focus in disease research,” Elena says. “The way viruses emerge is complex, involving different hosts from animal reservoirs to humans, so it’s important to understand how the virus interacts with both host ecology and genetics.”
Viral-outbreak prediction requires understanding how a virus can move between hosts, and how it can adapt to a new environment. Past work on predicting viral outbreaks focused on the long-term evolution of viruses. In recent years, the focus has shifted to studying the short-term factors that allow a virus to enter a new host, replicate, and avoid being targeted by the host’s immune system. Other short-term factors can play a role, such as the ability to spread through the air, the ability to infect new types of hosts, or the increased contact between potential hosts, due to ecological events such as deforestation or agricultural expansion.
The working group will bring together a range of experts who aim to integrate experimental, theoretical, and computational approaches to study the various factors that can lead to the emergence of new viral pathogens.
“We are not going to pinpoint the precise next virus that will threaten our society,” says Elena, “but we hope to get some good ideas on how to prevent its emergence.”