Wildfires are complex adaptive systems with adaptation in evolutionary time. For example, trees may evolve seeds that can better survive a wildfire. On the other hand, wildfire management is a complex adaptive system in which the adaptations by people and institutions can happen within a year or two. The danger from wildfires is even greater than most people appreciate. A noteworthy study in Nature estimated that there were 41,000 excess U.S. deaths per year from wildfire-smoke in 2011–2020, and worse can be expected in the future. The premise of this talk is that newcomers to the field of wildfires might be able to identify new opportunities to lessen the risk. Improvements might be possible for prevention, local adaptation, training, detection, prediction, trust in warning messages, firebreaks, allocation of resources, suppression, and post-fire actions. Artificial intelligence can help in several ways. So can drones. Of course, The Sante Fe Institute itself is in a high risk location.
Speaker
Robert AxelrodWilliam D. Hamilton Distinguished University Professor Emeritus at the University of Michigan