Santa Fe
Institute

Political Risk in the Era of Uncertainty

"The Difficulty of Ruling over a Diverse Nation" (1578) by Pieter van der Borcht the Elder. Courtesy of Public Domain Review.
New York City, NY
Applied Topical Meeting

All day

SFI's ACtioN Annual Risk Meeting (Co-Hosted by Morgan Stanley)

Our campus is closed to the public for this event.

Politics sit at the nexus of multiple complex systems, including: financial markets, evolving technological ecosystems, global trade networks, foreign governments, domestic belief networks, and many more. The interdependencies between these systems often limit the value of linear models of political phenomena. However, complexity science can offer new lenses for analyzing these phenomena. For example, if democracy constitutes a collective intelligence, can we identify adjacent collective intelligences - such as political betting markets - that provide more frequent data on the state of the electorate? If we can model the forces that drive polarization in an electorate, can we better understand our current political situation and thus better intuit future regulatory trends?

This day-long meeting will explore how insights from complexity science can help us to better anticipate and understand political risk.

Overview Agenda

*All times in U.S. Eastern. Agenda subject to change, so please check back often!*
Tuesday, October 15th
New York, NY

9:00AM

Breakfast Available

9:30AM

Meeting Start and Welcome
with Michael Mauboussin (Morgan Stanley & SFI Trustee) and Will Tracy (Santa Fe Institute)

9:45AM

Presentation and Q&A on Political Betting Markets and Prediction
with Rajiv Sethi (Columbia University & SFI)

10:30AM

Morning Break

10:45AM

 Panel on Polarization, with Q&A 
with Simon Levin (Princeton University & SFI), Keena Lipsitz (Queens College), Samuel Wang (Princeton University), and Vicky Chuqiao Yang (MIT Sloan)

12:15PM

Lunch

1:15PM

 Presentation and Q&A on Norms, Institutions, and Political Discourse
with Hahrie Han (Johns Hopkins University)

2:00PM

 Conversation and Q&A on China and Geopolitical Risk
with Elizabeth Economy (Stanford University) and Will Tracy (Santa Fe Institute)

2:45PM

 Afternoon Break

3:00PM

 Presentation and Q&A on Navigating Radical Uncertainty in a Chaotic World
with Brian Klaas (University College London)

3:45PM

 Adjourn

4:30PM to 6:30PM

 Off-Site Reception

Speakers & Panelists

Elizabeth EconomyElizabeth EconomyHargrove Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University; Fmr. Senior Advisor for China at the Department of Commerce
Hahrie HanHahrie HanProfessor & Director of the SNF Agora Institute, and Faculty Director of P3 Research Lab at Johns Hopkins University
Brian KlaasBrian KlaasAssociate Professor in Global Politics at University College London
Simon LevinSimon A. LevinScience Board at SFI; James S. McDonnell Distinguished University Professor in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at Princeton
Keena LipsitzKeena LipsitzAssociate Professor of Political Science at Queens College, CUNY
Rajiv SethiRajiv SethiProfessor of Economics at Columbia University, and External Professor & Science Steering Committee Member at SFI
Samuel WangSamuel WangProfessor of Neuroscience at Princeton University
Vicky Chuqiao YangVicky Chuqiao YangAssistant Professor in Management of Technological Innovation and System Dynamics at MIT Sloan School of Management

Organizers

Casey CoxCasey CoxDirector of the Applied Complexity Network at the Santa Fe Institute
David KrakauerDavid KrakauerPresident + William H. Miller Professor of Complex Systems at SFI
Michael MauboussinMichael MauboussinHead of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management
William TracyWilliam TracyVice President for Applied Complexity, SFI

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